May 09, 2017

Highlights

• Projected late-2017 El Niño climatic event could affect food security in the Horn of Africa
• UNICEF increases Somalia malnutrition projection to 1.4 million children impacted by late 2017
• Donors fund 76 percent of Somalia Operational Plan for Famine Prevention
• Relief actors detect fall armyworm infestation in Ethiopia and Kenya

Key Developments

Vulnerable populations in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and northern Kenya continue to face life-threatening acute food insecurity, following delayed and erratic seasonal rains across the Horn of Africa, according to the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). As of early May, April-to-June gu rains had begun in parts of Somalia’s semiautonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland, while Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, and coastal areas of Galgadud and Mudug regions had not yet received rains, according to the UN. In addition, central and eastern Ethiopia remained dry due to below-average February-to-June belg rainfall, and the delayed onset of March-to-May long rains had exacerbated dry conditions in agricultural and pastoral areas of Kenya, according to FEWS NET.

Despite an unprecedented scale-up in donor contributions to address the humanitarian crisis and prevent Famine in Somalia, additional relief assistance is urgently needed due to the late onset of gu rains, increased malnutrition levels, and the ongoing cholera outbreak—all of which are compounded by humanitarian access constraints.

Through nearly $1.3 billion in ongoing FY 2016 and FY 2017 support from USAID/OFDA, USAID/FFP, and State/PRM, relief actors are responding to critical needs for emergency food, health, livelihoods, nutrition, protection, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) assistance among internally displaced persons (IDPs), host communities, and refugees affected by drought and conflict in the region.

REGIONAL

As of late April, seasonal rains were either delayed or erratic across many pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of the Horn of Africa region, where significant populations are facing Crisis—IPC Phase 3—and Emergency—IPC Phase 4—levels of acute food insecurity in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and northern Kenya, according FEWS NET.

From March 24–28, the Government of Kenya (GoK) convened a series of meetings with representatives of other governments in the region, technical experts, international donors, international research centers, private sector actors, and other stakeholders to discuss strategies to manage the ongoing fall armyworm infestation affecting the East African countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. Fall armyworm is an invasive pest native to Latin America that causes significant damage to both staple and cash crops; crop losses associated with the infestation could potentially compound food security concerns in the region. During the meetings, representatives from 28 countries discussed best practices and ongoing research to combat fall armyworm, emphasizing the need for country-specific and regional surveillance and monitoring networks, as well as the development of a central information database to monitor regional infestation trends.

SOMALIA

Approximately 1.4 million children younger than five years of age in Somalia will face acute levels of malnutrition by the end of 2017, according to revised projections by the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The figure represents a 48 percent increase from the late-February projection of 944,000 children expected to face acute malnutrition in the UN Operational Plan for Famine Prevention due to a significant increase in the number of children being admitted to severe acute malnutrition (SAM) treatment facilities in early 2017, the UN agency reports. UNICEF’s revised projection includes more than 275,000 children who will experience SAM. Since January, UNICEF and partners have treated more than 56,000 children experiencing SAM—nearly twice the number of patients treated during the same period in 2016. UNICEF is also facilitating access to safe drinking water for an estimated 1 million people in Somalia.

As of early May, gu rains had begun in parts of Puntland and Somaliland, while Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, and coastal areas of Galgadud and Mudug regions remained dry, according to the UN. From mid-to-late April, response stakeholders recorded no rainfall in central and northeastern Somalia’s Bari, Galgadud, Mudug, and Nugal regions, and livestock body conditions in northeastern livelihood zones continued to deteriorate, according to FEWS NET. Southern parts of the country received light-to-moderate rains during the same period, with a few isolated areas receiving above-average rainfall, FEWS NET reports. According to worst-case projections, deterioration to Famine-level food insecurity by mid-2017 remains possible, given increasing rainfall deficits, declining household purchasing power, and humanitarian access constraints, particularly in the worst-affected areas of Bakool and Bay regions and the Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone—comprising areas of northern Somalia’s Bari, Nugal, Sanaag, and Sool regions. Furthermore, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a high probability of an El Niño climatic event occurring by late 2017, which could negatively affect Somalia’s October-to-December deyr rainy season.

As of April 23, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGoS) and UN World Health Organization (WHO) had recorded nearly 31,800 suspected cholera cases and approximately 620 related deaths since January 2017. Of these, more than 18,400 cases and 500 deaths were reported from hard-to-reach areas, where the case fatality rate (CFR) is approximately 4.1 percent—more than twice the countrywide CFR of 1.9 percent and more than four times the WHO emergency threshold of 1 percent. The outbreak has affected 13 of Somalia’s 18 regions to date in 2017, and the FGoS and WHO are receiving continued reports of suspected cholera cases in IDP settlements in Bari, Bay, and Mudug regions, as well as Somalia’s capital city of Mogadishu. As of April 14, drought conditions had internally displaced approximately 620,000 people in Somalia since November 2016, including 127,000 people in Baidoa alone, according to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a standardized tool that aims to classify the severity and magnitude of food insecurity. The IPC scale, which is comparable across countries, ranges from Minimal—IPC I—to Famine—IPC.

The FGoS and WHO continue to lead cholera response interventions in coordination with humanitarian actors, deploying rapid response teams to support cholera case management and strengthening national and regional coordination mechanisms. With FY 2017 assistance, six USAID/OFDA partners are providing critical health services, including support for fixed site and mobile clinics, to treat communicable diseases—such as cholera—aggravated by drought and food insecurity.

Relief actors continue to face insecurity and access challenges along major transit routes in central and southern Somalia, according to the UN. Humanitarian and commercial organizations report movement restrictions related to road blockades, checkpoints, and active conflict. More than 40 static checkpoints on the road from Mogadishu to Gedo Region’s town of Dolow have resulted in delays and several incidents of cargo trucks being stranded while movement is negotiated. In addition, the al-Shabaab armed group has instituted a blockade in Bakool’s Wajid town, preventing food supplies and other relief commodities entering the town.

As of April 23, international donors had contributed approximately $623 million—or 76 percent—toward the UN Operational Plan for Famine Prevention, which requests $825 million to address humanitarian needs in Somalia from January to June. The unprecedented influx of humanitarian assistance in the first half of 2017 and stable international food prices are helping mitigate some of the effects of poor rainfall, reduced household purchasing power, and humanitarian access constraints. The UN plans to issue a revised 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Somalia to include an increase in identified needs, as well as projected needs from July–December, in the coming days.

From January to March, USAID/FFP partner the UN World Food Program (WFP) provided vocational training—including beekeeping, carpentry, electronics and auto repair, hairdressing, and tailoring courses—to approximately 5,000 vulnerable IDPs as a component of relief operations in eight urban locations across Somalia. Beneficiaries received vouchers to purchase food in exchange for their participation, enabling them to improve food security while gaining the skills to build resilience and diversify their income sources. WFP recently shifted focus from a combination of relief and resilience support activities to focus exclusively on relief operations; the UN agency plans to maintain exclusive focus on emergency response at least through June. To date in FY 2017, USAID/FFP has provided $80 million to WFP for emergency vouchers, cash-based assistance, and in-kind food assistance, including supplementary nutritious foods for treatment and management of acute malnutrition.

To address access to critical nutrition and WASH needs in Somalia, nine USAID/OFDA partners are working to reach 4.5 million people in need through emergency water trucking, rehabilitation of water sources, hygiene promotion activities, and the provision of hygiene items with FY 2017 support. Additionally, five USAID/OFDA partners are providing life-saving nutrition interventions, including technical support for acute malnutrition prevention and treatment, to an estimated 2.2 million people in need.

ETHIOPIA

In March, the GoE National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) surveyed local officials from more than 260 priority woredas, or districts, across Afar; Amhara; Gambella; Oromiya; Somali; Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (SNNP); and Tigray regions to evaluate drought conditions and related humanitarian needs. Nearly 150 surveyed districts reported ongoing water shortages, with 87 percent noting that water trucking activities were insufficient to meet WASH needs. The majority of districts surveyed also reported that farming households were unable to plant due to the continued lack of significant rainfall.

Parts of Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, Oromiya, and SNNP regions received above-average belg rainfall from April 1–10, regenerating water supply for crops and pasture, according to the GoE National Meteorology Agency (NMA). However, central and northeastern areas of Ethiopia remained dry, resulting in continued limited access to safe drinking water and livestock fodder, the UN reports. The GoE has indicated that populations in need of relief assistance identified in the 2017 Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) are likely to increase due to deteriorating agriculture, livestock, and water conditions. As of early May, the GoE and UN had increased targets for relief food assistance by an additional 2.2 million people, bringing the estimated number of people in need to nearly 7.8 million people, the UN reports.

Agricultural actors first detected fall armyworm in SNNP’s Sheka Zone in early March, according to the GoE. The pest has since been confirmed in Oromiya and SNNP, affecting approximately 22,900 hectares—or 56,600 acres—of maize crops. The GoE has conducted detection surveys in 15 zones of Oromiya and SNNP and is conducting outreach campaigns to train farmers on techniques to protect their crops. To date, more than 48,300 farmers in the two regions have participated in pest control activities.

The GoE Ministry of Health continues to lead efforts to respond to the ongoing outbreak of acute watery diarrhea (AWD), primarily affecting Somali Region, according to the UN. The GoE had deployed more than 300 health workers to Somali, supported by an estimated 25 WHO surveillance officers, as of late April. GoE-led health actors are also holding daily coordination meetings in Somali’s capital city of Jijiga.

Between January and March, humanitarian organizations, including the NDRMC, WFP, and the USAID-supported, Catholic Relief Services-led Joint Emergency Operation (CRS/JEOP), provided approximately 4.7 million beneficiaries—84 percent of the 5.6 million people targeted under the 2017 HRD—with relief food assistance, the UN reports. The total includes nearly 4.5 million people who received in-kind food distributions and nearly 197,900 people in 19 districts of Amhara and Oromiya who received cash-based assistance despite humanitarian access constraints on the border between Oromiya and Somali in February.

In FY 2016, USAID/FFP provided 560 metric tons (MT) of ready-to-use therapeutic foods (RUTF)—with an estimated value of $2.8 million—to partner UNICEF for the treatment of 44,800 children experiencing SAM. UNICEF and partners are distributing the RUTF in hotspot districts across Ethiopia—a GoE classification of districts most in need of humanitarian assistance based on the impact of food availability, WASH infrastructure, access to markets, the nutrition situation, and other contributing factors.

USAID/OFDA partners are responding to urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia through life-saving health, nutrition, WASH, and agricultural recovery activities. With support from USAID/OFDA, UN agencies and NGOs are providing emergency seed supplies and livestock support to accelerate agricultural recovery for approximately 1.9 million people in need; delivering essential health services and supplies to help the humanitarian community reach an estimated 4.4 million people; and contributing to efforts to assist 3 million children and women projected to experience acute malnutrition in 2017. USAID/OFDA partners are also strengthening access to safe drinking water and services to mitigate public health risks for an estimated 2 million people requiring emergency WASH assistance in Ethiopia.

KENYA

The delayed onset of March-to-May long rains across Kenya has exacerbated dry conditions in agricultural and pastoral areas, negatively affecting livestock productivity and delaying land preparation and planning, according to FEWS NET. FEWS NET projects that reduced milk production and consumption, low incomes, and limited access to food will increase the population facing Crisis-levels of acute food insecurity in pastoral areas, with some populations in Marsabit and Turkana counties deteriorating to Emergency-levels in the coming months. In coastal and southeastern agricultural areas, poor households facing limited income-earning opportunities and a likely below-average long rains harvest are also expected to continue to experience Crisis-level food insecurity through September.

An estimated 412,300 children younger than five years of age in Kenya are experiencing acute malnutrition, including approximately 109,500 children experiencing SAM, according to the UN. The nutrition situation in Mandera and Marsabit counties and Turkana North sub-county is classified as extremely critical, with a global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence higher than 30 percent—twice the WHO emergency threshold of 15 percent. In addition, nine sub-counties across Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana counties report GAM prevalence from approximately 15 percent to more than 30 percent, according to the UN. To address concerning malnutrition trends, relief actors are supporting the GoK Ministry of Health to conduct biweekly malnutrition screenings and provide treatment in 14 counties. The Nutrition Cluster—the coordinating body for humanitarian nutrition activities, comprising UN agencies, NGOs, and other stakeholders—reports that greater participation in screenings has likely resulted in increased treatment center admissions for children experiencing SAM.

In mid-April, the GoK confirmed a countrywide infestation of fall armyworm, which has affected approximately 15,000 hectares of land in 13 of Kenya’s 46 counties to date. The infestation is primarily impacting the Rift Valley area of western Kenya, where the majority of the country’s maize is produced. The GoK has formed a task team—comprising representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture, the International Center of Insect Physiology and Ecology, and the Kenya Plant Health Inspection Service—to oversee armyworm infestation response efforts. The GoK is encouraging farmers to avoid planting new crops near infested fields and to plant early in other areas, in accordance with regional planting calendars, to reduce crop vulnerability. The GoK is also conducting mass outreach campaigns—including sharing alerts via radio, television, and other media, as well as disseminating brochures, posters, and fact sheets—to educate farmers on strategies to protect their crops. The GoK projects that fall armyworm surveillance and response activities will require $6.2 million in funding and plans to contribute nearly $3.7 million from its national Emergency Response Fund to support response efforts.

With support from USAID and UN and NGO partners, the GoK National Disaster Operations Center is leading the development of contingency plans and preparedness simulations in advance of potential insecurity related to Kenya’s general elections, scheduled for August 8. The plans call for the establishment of eight hubs to store food and other relief commodities and disaster response simulations to prepare for potential election-related displacement.

On April 13, representatives from USAID/OFDA, USAID/FFP, and USAID/Kenya led a senior congressional staff delegation to Turkana to observe ongoing drought conditions and USAID-supported humanitarian and development response interventions. During the trip, the delegation visited a USAID/OFDA-supported, UNICEF-managed nutrition program and a USAID/FFP-supported irrigation scheme to demonstrate how ongoing resilience interventions are alleviating the negative effects of drought.

Through ongoing FY 2016 USAID assistance, UNICEF is distributing nutrition commodities, training health care workers on high-impact nutrition interventions, and promoting community awareness of acute malnutrition to improve timely detection and treatment, helping the humanitarian community to reach a targeted 465,600 children and women.

DJIBOUTI

To date, March-to-May diraac/sougum rains have been average to above-average in most regions of Djibouti, except areas north of Obock city and southeastern border areas that continue to experience below-average rainfall, FEWS NET reports. FEWS NET expects most pastoralists to face Stressed—IPC 2—levels of acute food insecurity through September, although pastoralists in rainfall-deficit areas who are unable to sell sufficient livestock and milk will likely experience Crisis—IPC 3—levels. FEWS NET reports that livestock body conditions are likely to begin improving in August, following pasture regeneration from July-to-September karam/karma rains.

OTHER HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

The Government of Denmark announced a contribution of 75 million Danish Krone—equivalent to $10.7 million—for WFP drought response operations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan on May 2. The assistance will support vulnerable communities in Somalia through cash-based transfers; provide supplementary feeding to children younger than five years of age and pregnant and lactating women in Ethiopia; and address high malnutrition levels for drought-affected children and women in Kenya. In late April, the Government of China also announced $10 million for WFP operations to prevent Famine in Somalia and $5 million to address acute food insecurity in Kenya. In Kenya, the new contribution has enabled WFP to resume provision of full food rations for refugees from April to July, following more than a year of reduced food rations.

The Government of Japan recently contributed more than $10.5 million to UNHCR to support the voluntary return and reintegration of refugees residing in Kenya to areas of origin in Somalia. An estimated 20,000 Somali refugees have returned from Kenya in 2017, primarily choosing to return to Lower Juba’s city of Kismayo, according to UNHCR. The new assistance will support education, health care, and shelter activities for refugees returning to rural and urban areas, including drought-affected communities.

In mid-March, the International Islamic Charitable Organization (IICO) announced $500,000 in funding to provide emergency food supplies and medicines and facilitate the digging of wells to support drought-affected communities in Somalia. The IICO-supported relief program aims to benefit approximately 35,000 people in Somalia, according to the Kuwait News Agency.

On May 3, the European Union contributed €3 million—nearly $3.3 million—to support UNICEF’s emergency interventions in Ethiopia, including life-saving malnutrition treatment for 13,000 children younger than five years of age. UNICEF supports the GoE to expand the reach of existing health care services and provide RUTF and other therapeutic supplies to children experiencing acute malnutrition.

The Government of Switzerland’s Agency for Development and Cooperation released 15 million Swiss Francs—or more than $15.1 million—in additional funding to deliver humanitarian assistance and expand development activities in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen in late February. Ongoing support in the four countries aims to combat food insecurity, improve livelihoods, enhance access to water and sanitation, and protect civilians.